Friday, May 30, 2008

Latin America in least for now.

Yesterday Fitch upgraded Brazil to Investment Grade. This is big news as Brazil now has two rating agencies giving it this important rating. Fixed income and the currency rallied on the back of this news and brought the rest of the region with it.

There was word out of Argentina that the Farmers strike was basically resolved, but I an hearing this morning that this might be a bit premature.

Rates initially moved lower, but as of the morning there looks to be more buying interest. I continue to look for Crude to top out and as such so should the Euro.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading.


Thursday, May 29, 2008

Bear Stearns Part Three....

Here is the final installment from the Wall Street Journal about the Bear Stearns "Shot Gun Wedding" as Jamie Dimon put it.



A few Ramdon Thoughts

Yesterday we had a Traders meeting at my office. It was surprisingly depressing. Talk of inflation, stagflation, Bank failures and this was the positive stuff! Getting through all of that Doom and Gloom the general message took from the meeting was:

1. Higher rates globally.
2. Weaker dollar
3. Higher Crude
4. Higher Inflation
5. The Fed on hold....for a considerable amount of time. With a steepening yield curve to combat inflation this would be the best of both worlds for the Fed. A steep yield curve allows the banks to recapitalize (maybe a slow process) and the higher long term rates can help combat inflation.

Another thought today was that the Fed's view of the economy is that the U.S. slowdown is deeper then they will admit. This deep(er) recession will cause a global slowdown which in turn will lead to lower commodity prices.

Any thought....let me know.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading


Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Bear Stearns Part two......

Here is the second installment of the Fall of Bear Stearns from the Wall Street Journel.....A very good read....



Lot's of Action out of Latin America

There was lots of movement in Latin America today. In Argentina the farmers were asked by local leaders to show patience in dealing with the Government.

``There is a very strong desire across the country to express anger at the government's decision to stand us up,'' Buzzi said. ``We're asking the people to be patient and tolerant.''

This shows that everyone is aware of what is at stake if talks totally crumble.


In Brazil the finance minister Guido Mantega said that

Brazil may cut more import duties to help fight inflation and stem rising food costs.

``If we see more products experiencing price increases, we can lower tariffs,'' Mantega told reporters today in Rio de Janeiro. Brazil has more ways to fight inflation than just raising interest rates, he said.

This "Help" sent Brazilian rates off the highs of the day. Still closing higher but possible signalling a near term top. With 2-3 year sector rates at 14.5% and the latest projection for short term rates to peak at 14.5%, lending in the 2-3 year sector against paying a shorter run seems like it has some potential. I cut down on my widening differential play against dollars and will look to exit totally when I can.

In Mexico tere was talk by President Felipe Calderon of "opening up the energy and telecommunications industries to more investment as well as improvements to education and labor laws may boost economic growth to as much as 6 percent a year. "

This could really help with economic growth in Mexico. The news was taken favorable with the currency stregthening marginally against the dollar.

In Chile the dollar strengthened alot over the last two days. Why, I am not exactly sure. The CB has been in daily buying it's usual 50 mio usd. This it totally expected and I do not think is the reason. When I know more I will pass along.

Take a look at Crude, LOWER Today. This will be good for Asia and bad for Latam overall. I sold Usd/Krw at 1043.50 in the 1mth. I expect the market to open lower in Asia time tonight.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading.

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Tuesday, May 27, 2008

The Fall of Bear Stearns....

There is a very good Article in today's Wall Street Journel. It is part one of a three part story about the last days before Bear Stearns fell.

Twelve hours after agreeing to sell Bear Stearns Cos. for $2 a share, Alan Schwartz wearily made his way to the company gym for a much-needed workout.



A few quick observations

Just back from a few days at the beach ans I see a Little action out of Latin America today. First, strong talk of larger then expected interest rate rises in Brazil. Surveys are showing a rise to 13.5% by year end. This is in line with what I have been thinking for some time. Inflation in Brazil (as just about everywhere) is a very big concern.

``Investors see rate and inflation forecasts going up and they adjust their bets on the futures market as well,'' said Rodrigo Nassar, who oversees trading at Hencorp Commcor, a brokerage in Sao Paulo.

Inflation estimates rose from 5.12% to 5.24% in last weeks survey. READ MORE

In Argentina, all that looked Rosy last week looks pretty bad this week.

Argentina's government canceled a meeting with farmers scheduled for today to discuss a new export-tax system after producers threatened new protests.

This is bad news for all "Yield Monkey's" like myself. Although the currency doesn't seem to have reacted yet I think that if the situation is not addressed quickly the currency will weaken in a substantial way. I am currently short dollars and will be watching the situtaion closely. To READ MORE

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading


Saturday, May 24, 2008

Summer is here.....

Memorial day weekend is upon us, as such so is the unofficial start of summer. Here is a Summer Reading list suggested be the Wall Street Journal.

Summer Reading List

Enjoy the Weekend......


Friday, May 23, 2008

Mexico, Inflation plus Slow Growth

Mexico had a few Economic numbers today which certainly do not bode well form the economy. First,

Mexico's economic growth slowed more than economists forecast in the first quarter as the construction industry stagnated and agricultural output fell.

GDP which was expected to rise 3.3% was only able to gain 2.6% according to the latest statistics. This, to me, was not a big surprise given Mexico's proximity to the U.S. Eventually there needed to be some effect and the sign's seem to be materializing.


Next came the inflation number's.

Annual inflation quickened to 4.83 percent in the first half of May from 4.56 percent in April, Banco de Mexico said today. The annual rate is the highest since December 2004 and is above the central bank's 2 percent to 4 percent target range.

Consumer prices fell 0.26 percent in the first 15 days of May, less than the 0.3 percent decline forecast by the median estimate of 19 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy items, rose 0.26 percent, the bank said. Core inflation was higher than any of the 16 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

This caused interest rates to move higher on the anticipation that the Central Bank will raise Official Rates. Although this is a real possibility I expect Mexican Rates to remain on hold for the next few month's similar to what will occur here in the U.S.

Crude today climbed to over $135 per barrel. As the trading session came to a close it was "back down" to $130.60 per barrel. Have we seen a top, well I think if we haven't we are pretty close. I sold Euro (once again) on the back of this view at 1.5700.

My other positions are as follows:

Usd/Clp (I want to cut down on this a bit)

My Rates positions are:

Looking for higher rates in Brazil and Mexico, while lower rates in Argentina.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading.

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Thursday, May 22, 2008

Fed is gloomy, times look difficult.

The Fed minutes came out yesterday and they were not pretty. The Fed made it clear that there were no more rate cuts on the horizon and that Inflation is going to be a problem.

Federal Reserve officials acknowledge they are fighting a difficult, two-front war against slow economic growth and high inflation fed by soaring commodity prices.

In the minutes of the central bank's April 29-30 policy meeting, Fed officials provided a more downbeat view of the economy than in their latest forecast, in January. Their reduced expectations reflect the continuing housing downturn and credit crunch, as well as rising prices for food and energy.


Also Crude made record highs. Really a bad situation for the economy in general. The future does not look pretty.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading


Dollar Crumbles

The dollar continued to weaken as crude raced above 132.00 during New York trading. Mr Buffett didn’t help the situation at all by stating “Dollar will continue to devalue, polices needed to correct slide have not changed”.

It seems that the market is looking for any opportunity (once again) to sell the dollar. Germany Business confidence was unexpectedly high and couple that with crude prices and the dollar didn’t stand a chance.

In Argentina Yields came off (HARD) and the currency stregthened (this time not because of the CB) as the Farmers Strike officially came to a halt.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading


Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Fed Vice Chairman Paints Dour Picture

From the Wall Street Journel....

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said economic conditions remain "quite difficult" and cautioned that a likely return to stronger economic growth next year "could be relatively moderate."

The central bank's No. 2 official, who collaborates closely with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, also said monetary policy is "appropriately calibrated" to promote stronger employment and moderating inflation. His comments ratified market expectations that the Fed will hold its interest-rate target at 2% through much of this year. He added, however, that "a large measure of uncertainty surrounds that judgment" about the current stance, leaving the door open to further cuts if necessary.

Read More


Latin America in play....

Latin America took center stage today as a few of my trade ideas are starting to jell. Argentinan farmers announced today that they would suspend their strike to revive talks on export taxes. This is very good news as it have been certainly weighing on the minds of foreigners looking to invest in the fixed income markets. With the farmers on strike it was shutting down the Argentine economy and ramping up inflation. To Read more click HERE

In Brazil the central bank President Henrique Meirelles may raise the benchmark interest rate more than previously forecast as the outlook for inflation in Latin America's biggest economy worsens, Banco Itau Holding Financeira SA said. This coming from a story on BLOOMBERG This is something I have been looking for, for a while. Inflation is a global problem but it is effecting Latin America (and specifically Brazil) quite a bit. The Central Bank laid out a case for higher rates at the last meeting, and it looks like the pace will be stepped up and quite possible increase the final level of rates.

These markets remain pretty choppy and I think that you should be looking for "Base Hits" and not any "Home Runs".


Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Home Depot's Net Fall's 66%

Here is a follow up to the preivious post.

Home Depot Inc. reported a 66% drop in fiscal first-quarter net income, thanks in part to restructuring charges, as it continues to suffer amid economic conditions that have been discouraging homeowners from spending on home-improvement projects.

Read More


Retail Stores begin to suffer.....

The Economic slowdown continues to hit the retail stores. Lowes today posted an 18% drop in first quarter profits and lowered its out look for the year. According to this ARTICLE in the WSJ Home Depot a rival of Lowes is closing stores and scaling back expansion plans.

Home improvement stores will suffer in times of economic slowdown. Homeowners need to pay heating and electric bills rather then redecorate and expand.

For investor’s it feels to me like a yield day. Most high yielders are doing better and with a holiday in the States this weekend I think it should be quiet.

My trades from earlier stand

Usd/Brl (this one I am least comfortable with)

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading.

Monday, May 19, 2008

The Dollar Fall's as Crude moves higher.

The Dollar once again is under attack as Crude marched higher in spite of talk from Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi that they would increase production by 300,000 barrel's a day to 9.45 million barrels. No thing it seemed could stop the fall. All commodities were once again bid with Gold,Soybean, Wheat and Zinc leading the way. Some in the market are blaming Goldman Sach's:

``We can blame Goldman again,'' said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA Inc. in New York. ``In March 2005 they predicted that prices would rise dramatically, and they did. Prices jumped to the $125 level after another Goldman report less than two weeks ago. At this point nobody wants to bet against Goldman.''

Also adding to the surge in Crude prices was the increases in purchases from China.

PetroChina International Co., the trading unit of PetroChina Co., the country's biggest oil producer, has already purchased 2.9 million barrels of diesel for June. That's in addition to the 1.45 million barrels that China International United Petroleum & Chemicals Corp. bought for the month.

The complete story can be read on BLOOMBERG.

I was short Euro but was stopped out on Friday. My other positions remain the same:

Short Usd/Cad
Short Usd/Clp
Short Usd/Cop
Short Usd/Ars

I think I will stay away from the Euro for a while as I have been unable to make any money on my position's in this currency pair for quite some time. In Argentina it seems that they are very close to ending the farmers strike. Banks and Business groups are urging that the Government settle the strike right away. The market responded by selling dollars aggressively after this news.

Mexico had a Rate Announcement on Friday and as expected held rates steady. They did speak of inflation in a lengthy way but it was certainly not in the aggressive nature that the market wanted. As such any thought of a rate increase in the near term future seems to be off the table.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading

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Sunday, May 18, 2008

America's Race to the Middle

That was the title of an article in yesterdays WSJ . I think this is an interesting and good development. Watching John McCain distance himself from President Bush and the Republican party in general is a fascinating process. This is something that our most successful politician's have been employing for a while. Think Micheal Bloomberg and Arnold Schwarzenegger. New, younger voter's are not looking for old time politics but rather something new and fresh (i.e. the appeal of Obama). Even John McCain has benefited by this over the years (he was always known as a Maverick). It seems to me that Politician's need to start out at the extremes to get their party's nomination, then work themselves to the Middle to win the general election. Anyway I thought it was an interesting article.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading.


Saturday, May 17, 2008

Mahalo……Hawaiian for Thank You

I just came across a new and very interesting search engine. Mahalo it is described as a:

“Human-powered search engine that creates organized, comprehensive, and spam free search results for the most popular search terms. Our search results only include great links.”

What I like about the search results is the tab across the top which will give you the results from Mahalo plus the results from the other popular search engines (Google, Yahoo, as well as YouTube, Flickr, Wikipedia and

It really organizes all the search results on one page and in an orderly fashion.

Take a look at and let me know what you think.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading


Friday, May 16, 2008

Risk appetite increases and so do opportunites.

It seems to me that risk is being put back on. Emerging Market currencies, led by Latin America have strengthen tremendously over the last few trading sessions. I am getting more confident in entering some yield plays in a small way. If correct I will add going forward.

1. Sell Usd/Ars. This is something I have talked about for a while. I think that the Farmers stick will be settled amicably, as the government knows they have no other way out. A good article is the BLOOMBERG website. It details how the President Kirchner called for unity among political opponents. This fueled speculation that the Farmers strike would be settled.
2. Sell Euro. As I wrote yesterday, I am short at 1.5494 and will stop out above 1.5600 looking for a target of 1.51-1.52 area. This may be a bit to aggressive as I do not think market's will break out in a big way but I think the possibility for this move does exist.
3. Sell Usd/Clp and Usd/Cop. I like the region in general and the big picture for these currencies is strength. The market has gotten used to the intervention from the Chilean CB, therefore it is having alot less of an impact.
4. Sell Usd/Cad. Technically it looks terrible and from my market sources there has been big buying going on and the currency pair is no higher. The sellers for these size transaction are the big Canadian banks. This adds to my desire to be short Usd/Cad.

As you can see I have purposely stayed away from Usd/Brl. Although it is showing tremendous strength yet again, I find it difficult to sell dollars here with any conviction. I will not go long but rather get out of the way for now.

Enter at your own risk, but I think there could be some real opportunites in the near future.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading.

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Thursday, May 15, 2008

European Economy takes a jump.....led by Germany

German GDP jumped 1.5% compared with .3% last quarter. This result is the strongest since Q2 1996. I think this number tied in with recent EU official comments on inflation reinforces the thought process that rates will not be cut. The Euro jumped on the back of this news and I think that this is a selling opportunity. I am selling here (1.5500) and will stop out above 1.5600.

For more on the European growth story here is the link to BLOOMBERG

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.

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Argentine Bonds gain....

Argentine Bonds rose today on speculation that the Government would scrap the tax on the Farmers. This Tax has caused major problems in Argentina recently. The farmers have staged a few strikes fueling the food shortages throughout the country. The Article on BLOOMBERG details the situation. The market has not reacted as positivly as I would have thought. The CB was in yesterday selling dollars and I heard that the Venezuelan government purchased bonds yesterday, infusing more dollars into the market.

I am short dollars trying to collect the yield, but I am not overly confident in the position.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading.

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Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Europe begins talking about Inflation

EU Minister's were chirping today about how consumers would be "Suffering" in the wake of higher food and energy prices.

``The least well off in our societies are very seriously exposed to a loss of purchasing power due to the increase of oil prices, of commodity prices and food prices,'' Luxembourg Finance Minister Jean-Claude Juncker told a press conference in Brussels late yesterday after leading a meeting of euro-area counterparts. ``It's up to public budgets to react to this loss in purchasing power by helping out the least well off.''

Fed governor's were also talking today about how Inflation will be with us for a while.

Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto said in a speech in Paris today that consumer prices are rising faster than she'd like and that inflation is a ``key risk'' to the economic outlook. Pianalto is a voter on the FOMC this year.

All in all, this talk signals to me that interest rates are not going lower (Fed Fund futures are building in a 90% chance of a 25bp rate increase by year end). The Fed has signaled that it will increase it's auctions if the credit crunch continues to be a problem.

While markets have improved, they remain ``far from normal,'' Bernanke said today in a speech to an Atlanta Fed conference at Sea Island, Georgia. ``We stand ready to increase the size of the auctions if further warranted by financial developments.''

This talk sent rates higher and the dollar against the Euro little changed. I still prefer to be short Euro and Gbp against the dollar. The U.K. looks to be in the middle of Stagflation (but then again isn't everyone) which is never a good thing.

Don't get "Married" to any position's. Better to take small profits when available as I am not sure we will see a real substantial trend in the near future.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading

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Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Latest Read.....

I have just finished Reading COVERT. The story is about the life of Bob Delaney, a current NBA Referee and former New Jersey State Trooper. Bob Delaney went under cover for 3 year's, infiltrating the Mafia. The book is interesting as it describes the methods that the Mafia used to extort legitimate buisnesses in the 1970's. This is a book that I typically enjoy, True Life crime novel. It is a quick read and a book that doesn't take a lot of concentration to get through. A good beach book or for the commute to and from work.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading


Monday, May 12, 2008

What should the Fed be focusing on the most ?

A quick poll to gauge what the Fed should be focusing on.

Currency Trading "Going" mainstream

Although Currency Trading for the average in investor has certainly been on the rise for the past several years, when I see articles like this one on YAHOO_BIZ it makes me think. Trading Currencies, just like stocks, is not as easy as it seems. Watching informercial's you see advertisers for systems. "Three red lights and you sell"....."Three green you buy". I cannot judge this system first hand as I have never tried it, but I can tell you that for any system to work you need to have the capital behind you.

What I mean by this is that your system can give you 2,3,4,5 signals in a row, all could be wrong and generate a small loss. Then give you the sixth signal which is a winner.....possible a big winner. The designer of the system will stand up and champion how well his system works......and they are correct. The problem is, did the Trader continue to execute the trade's as the system ecpected him to? Did the Trader have the capital and confidence to do so ?

I have always maintained to be a successful trader it is necessary to "Be in the Game". What I mean by that is there is always a move and ALWAYS another move. Miss this one that is ok, just make sure you have capital to participate in the next move. In trading you get markets wrong, often as lot. The key is to catch the few moves a year where you can make substantial money. I think that the average investor who trade their own account are looking for the "Holy Grail" to make a small fortune. I doubt that ever happens. There is no short cuts to success, and I think that in Currency Trading the vast majority of "Average Investors" are looking for the quick fix.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading.


Sunday, May 11, 2008

Happy Mother's Day.......May 11, 2008

Happy Mother's day to all the Mom's out there, especially mine !

Friday, May 09, 2008

Biltmore Who's Who ...Revisited.

Back in September of 2007 I wrote a post about the BILTMORE Who's Who.

As a follow-up I am wondering what my reader's think of the group ?

I look forward to your comments.


Thursday, May 08, 2008

Stocks take a tumble....

Stocks declined yesterday, on the back of record commodity prices which continue to rise. Crude staged a rally which led us to a record high 123.50 per barrel. This sent Interest rates lower and a general feeling of despair throughout the market. The Euro which has been under pressure the last few sessions, was incapable of staging a rally even as commodities rallied. Could this be a good sign for the dollar ? Well as any reader knows I have expected the dollar to rally for some time, today's price action gives me reason to believe that I am on the right track.

Brazil sold off aggressively today also, and the fixed income market melted for the third session in a row. This after the upgrade late last week. Although I think that the fixed income market still has some downside in it I think that the dollar against Brazil has run it's course and we are nearing a level to begin to short the dollar. Remember yields are currently 14% and the fundamental picture is still very good, and raising rates when inflation is a problem is a good thing. A little profit taking and getting rid of weak shorts is a good thing for this market overall.

Argentina is still having trouble with it's farmer's. This story on BLOOMBERG highlights the problems. I think that this situation will be resolved favorable and it will ultimately be good for the Peso. I am a strategic seller of dollar's (totally against the market view), so I sell and then hope and pray that I am right.

One recurring scenario that I have heard from traders is the "Summer Swoon". Those couple of months over the summer when EM melts down as everyone rushes for the exit in advance of vacations. To me if everyone is looking for it, maybe it doesn't happen.

Overall I think that there are some real potential opportunities.

1. Euro to sell off
2. Usd/Brl to sell off
3. Usd/Ars to sell off
4. Usd dollar rates to head higher (The Fed is done cutting for the foreseeable future as they are quite concerned about inflation)

With opportunities comes risk (in some of these trades considerable risk) but I think that in the bigger picture there is some real money to be made.

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Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Young voters.....

This is an ARTICLE in yesterday's USA Today. It is quite interesting as it is something that I have been speaking about for some time. That is, young voters are coming out to vote and it is changing the face of elections as we knew them. What I am not so sure i agree with is the part that says:

The bad news for Democrats: Hall and Gillard say they might vote Republican this fall if their presidential pick loses. The good news for democracy: Both say they'll definitely vote.

I think young Democrat's will deinitly come out to vote and DEFINITLY vote along Democratic party lines.

All in all not a good sign for the Republicans.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading


Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Brazil…after the upgrade.

Brazil was upgraded last week to investment grade status by S&P. This upgrade lifted Brazil’s sovereign credit rating one notch to BBB-. They cited a maturing of institutions and improved growth prospects.

This initially caused the currency to strengthen considerable from 1.7000 to 1.6600 on the day, and then continuing the march down to 1.6425 on the following day. But since then it has been a different story. The currency is currently trading at 1.6630. A key level for me is 1.6640. A close above here signals a move to 1.7120-30 area. I also think that the differential between Brazil and U.S. rates will widen out. After the excitement of the upgrade we have been seeing a steady selling of fixed income. I think this is due to the Central Bank’s current rate tightening stance. Near term rates are going higher. Pair this up with U.S. rates coming lower and the differential needs to widen.

All of the Latin American currencies are under pressure today. It looks to me as some risk is being taken off the table.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.


Quiet Day....

Yesterday was a very quiet day, as there was a holiday in the U.K.. The dollar gave back a little of it's recent gains but I think that is only a little bit of profit taking in the middle of a bigger move.

I am looking for dollar futures to also retrace a little (moving higher) but once again the bigger move for dollar rates is higher.

On another note, look for the Brazil to weaken and for rates to continue to move higher. The CB clearly wants rates higher and the currency made a big move on the back of a much anticipated upgrade (I am talking my book but that is allowed).

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.


Monday, May 05, 2008

Inflation rearing it's ugly head.

As we have been discussing the last inflation has been a global problem on the rise in the last year or so. Inflation is hitting the economy's in the form of higher energy pricing to start, but the trickle down affect results in higher food prices. From what I have been reading and seeing on news channels, two of the biggest worry spots are India and Egypt. Riots in the streets over food is almost common place (ok a little exagreation). But even one riot is more then I want to see. The Finance minister of India, Palaniappan Chidambaram, said

``If rightly or wrongly people perceive that commodities- futures trading is contributing to a speculation-driven rise in prices, then in a democracy you will have to heed that voice,''

The Indian Ruppee has been under pressure the last few weeks, with economist calling for a weker currency. This will only add fuel to the fire. This also is another reason why I think we have seen the last of rate cuts here and that the dollar will continue to rise.

Here it the full article from BLOOMBERG.COM.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading


Sunday, May 04, 2008

Hillary vs Obama

Just a quick commentary on the Democratic primary process. First, just a disclaimer,

I am no expert, this is just an opinion generated from watching news shows and reading the paper. I am probably misinformed, like the way I go through most of my life.

The way this primary process is playing out is crazy. With the last few States getting ready to hold their primaries it look's as if Hillary Clinton will have a very difficult time surpassing Barack Obama's delegate or popular vote totals. This will leave it up to the "Super Delegate's" to deciede the nomination for the Democratic Party. In theory a candidate who ammasses more popular votes and delegates can still be bumped because of the super delegates. Now I doubt it will happen in this case as the uproar would be deafening. Barack Obama has mobilized the young voters of this country and if he is bumped due to Super Delegates they would stage a protest (not voting now and for years) that would hand the election over to the Republican's.

I believe that the Democrats know this and are trying to get Hillary to go away quietly (they have been for some time), but Hillary, thanks in large part to Reverand Wright has cut into Obama's lead and looks like she can make a closer race of it.

This shapes up to be an ugly contest down the stretch. An election which should have been heavily favored by the Democrat's could turn toward the Republican's if the Democratic leadership, along with the eventual loser of the Hillary vs Obama contest does not step forward and make forceful statements of unity.

I am surprised that this type of show down has not occurred before, but I think it should be a wake up call to the Democractic leadership to make changes so that it does not happen again.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.


Friday, May 02, 2008

Recession....what.... Recession ????

Today the latest employment numbers were released. The numbers were much better then previously expected. The U.S. economy lost 20,000 jobs last month against an expected number of 75,000. Sure we may still be in a recession like Ellen Zentner states (and I agree), but then how come I am finding it so hard to find architects, contractors and workers to do some small projects around the house ?

I have been trying to fix a small water problem in my basement for the past year. First I hired a contractor (ok maybe not the best contractor...but he was cheap) who dug up my front yard and sealed my foundation. Unfortunately the problem was not fixed. Rather it just lessened the water that I had in my basement. Then I brought in a landscaper.This was not an easy task as of the 6 landscaper's that I called, only three showed up an only one provided me with an estimate. Since I was going to be ripping out all of my landscaping in the front of the house I decided that the tiny little steps leading up to my front door would no longer do. I need a grand entrance to suit my humble abode. Therefore I would need a permit for the work. Off to Town Hall I went to obtain the permit. Well guess what, to obtain the permit an architect's drawing was needed to accompany the application. Step two (or is this three?) find an architect that would do this relatively small job. I called one, very nice man, but the job was to small and he provided me with three other names. I called all three only one called back. He at first said he was to busy to do it, but after begging and pleading he agreed to come by and take a look. Nice man, very helpful. It turns out that not only do I need this work done on the front of my house but I also need:

1.To trim a large (very large) tree in my backyard so that the sun can get through and eliminate moisture.
2.Hire a contractor to redue all the stucco on my house. As the architect put it "There is alot of repair work which needs to be done"
3. Get a roofer to come in prior to this and ensure all flashing is done all around the roof (he did not see any)
4. Paint the house.
5. New driveway

I knew I should have stayed in bed this morning. So now I am trying to find an architect,landscaper and siding contractor (as my new architect friend said "This is a big job and will not be cheap"),painter, blah blah blah blah blah.......It has taken me a year to get this far (and I am no where) ugh, very fustrating.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading


Thursday, May 01, 2008

Bill O'Reilly......and Hillary Clinton

I just finished watching the clips of Bill O'Reilly interviewing Hillary Clinton on his show last night. First I thought he treated her very fairly. He asked tough questions but moved on and didn't linger when it was apparent that he would not get the answer's he was looking for. Hillary for her part seemed extremely composed, confident and comfortable. I felt that it was a good move on her part to agree to come on the show. She will reach quite a few voter's, still undeicded, and just appearing on the show got her tremendous visability. A lot of people, even decieded voters, tuned in last night (and will tonight) to see the dynamic of the two participants. This is better then a debate for Hillary. It also shows that Hillary is aware that she is not in a good situation in terms of the nomination and that she and her staff feel that the time is ripe to take Obama down (Reverad Wright!!). But is it to late? Time will tell for that.

Here is the LINK from AOL. The You Tube links are attached there.

Well worth the look and listen.

The U.S. dollar is "Cool" again....

From the look's of things this morning the U.S. Dollar may be rolling over and strength is on the way. I think all the pieces are starting to fall into place.

1. The Fed signaled yesterday that they are in the pause camp as far as interest rate cuts go.

2. The world is in a very inflationary environment. What would help this? Lower commidity prices led by crude. A 10% gain for the dollar would have a considerable impact as crude is priced in dollars. The world knows this and are starting to wake up. Venezuela even came out yesterday and stated that they were not going to go away from pricing their crude in dollars.

3. The worst of the Sub-prime mess seems to be behind us. I am not saying it is going to get better...just not worse.

I think you start building a long dollar position. I want to stay away from commidity currencies for now as yields there are to high.
Good Luck and Good Forex Trading