Thursday, January 26, 2006

Stocks on the move

Stock markets around the world have had a great day. The Bolsa (Mexico) +7.94%, Bovespa +13.62%(Brazil) Dax +2.6% etc etc etc. This has once again sent Emerging Market currencies gaining against the Dollar. I continue (I know I sound like a broken record) to favor this trade. Also I am long Usd/Jpy. It seems there is a story circulating that Japan is going to be ending thier Zero interest rate policy. That is the reason for the stronger dollar ag Jpy and also relates to the lower Bond market.

These are the FX Trading Ideas for today


Monday, January 23, 2006

Quiet day in FX

Today has been a relativly quiet day in the FX markets. Emerging Market currencies have done quite well and I continue to look for Latin Markets to trade strong. Asia on the other hand I am not so sure of. I am sitting long dollars against Jpy and although this position has been painfull I will continue with it for now. Oil prices continue to grind higher and there is no way this is good for countries such as China, Japan and the rest of this region.

Good Luck to all, These are the FX Trading Ideas for today.


Friday, January 20, 2006

Big Day for Emerging Markets

Yesterday Brazil cut the size of the acution that they have been doing on a daily basis for weeks. The market took this as a signal to sell dollars and Sell they did. The market closed off about 6 big figures which is quite a big move. Chile, Argentina and Colombia all followed this move. Although I was not short Dollar Brazil I was short the others and short the forwards. This is the big picture move in my mind(I know I am like a broken record) but I will continue with this core trade for now. I have also been looking at Iceland recently (Again I am attracted by the yield) an think a sell of dollars there could prove to be very benificial.

These are the FX Trading Ideas for today.


Tuesday, January 17, 2006

WATCH OIL !!!!!!

This is the key to the current markets (in my opinion at least) Oil Prices. They were up over two dollars per barrel today. This WILL hurt Asian Currencies. Latest reports has the Bank of Korea buying 4.3 bio usd over the last few weeks. Seems to me they are in a very good position to benifit from a runup in dollars (weakening of thier currency). I have cut all my dollar shorts against Brazil and Mexico (small long dollars now) and will look to exit short dollar Chile and Argentina tomorrow. Currently I am also long dollars agains the Yen.

Market is nervous so be carefull

These are the FX TRADING IDEAS for today.


Monday, January 16, 2006

Choppy month with little direction so far....

Markets have been a bit choppy so far this year. The Fed mintues from earlier in the month gave the impression to the markets that an end to the current tightening cycle is within sight. IF this is correct this should be VERY good news for Emerging Markets. I remain Small short dollars against Brazil,Mexico, Chile (uugghh). I am also short rates in both Brazil and Mexico. This has been the trends and until the market kicks me in the pants I will stay with these trades.

The big dollar is very interesting to me. I think that it is to low against Jpy. Carry is a very important eliminte to this trade but I think that it is due for a bounce (I am square currently looking for a sign of strength to buy). We have been basically sideways to a lower dollar since the beginning of the year (against Asia we are well off) but I am not convinced this move can sustain itself.

These are the FX TRADING IDEAS for today.


Friday, January 06, 2006


The dollar looks a little weak to me after todays Employment numbers (neutral to strong in my view). I am short dollars against the Euro, Mexico, Brazil, Chile (uugghh) and will go home over the weekend this way.

These are the updated FX Trading Ideas.

Good Luck to All


U.S. Employment Number

Today is a key day for the rest of the month direction wise. U.S. Employment is expected to be 5.0% while the Non-Farm payrolls ae expected at 200K. Now I have no idea (and I think that economist have little idea also) as to what the number will be. What I do think is that a neutral to weak number puts the U.S. dollar under tremendous pressure ( continuation of the current direction) and U.S. interest rate futures a stronger bid. Currently Asian Currencies have been very strong and I expect no matter what the number in the weeks to come dollar Asia will be lower. Latam I am still on the fence. After a strengthening of the currencies during the first two days of the year, there has been a BIG reversal. I am still CAUTIOUSLY short dollars here but I am not convinced of this move and will keep a close stop on these positions.

Good Luck to All. These are the FX Trading Ideas for Today.


Thursday, January 05, 2006

FX Trading

FX Trading is a growing industry. I cannot believe how far the market has come for the average individual. More and more as I "surf the web" I see sites for brokers and advisors helping individual investors with Forgien Exchange. Remember to be careful and know the risks before entering a trade (about the same as stock picking).

These are the FX TRADING IDEAS for today


Wednesday, January 04, 2006

Reversal of fortunes

2006 begins with a little retracement in the dollar and a continuing og the chase for yield with Emerging Markets. After the Fed minutes revieled that the tightening cycle might be coming to an end dollar futures, followed by the rest of the world, rallied. My take on the minutes is slightly different. I think that a few (2 possible 3 ) more rate hikes are planned. After that it will be a numbers game. I am looking for a strong employment number on friday and with it will come a big selloff in futures followed by a rally in the dollar. If the number is neutral to weak look for the dollar to come under additional pressure with lower global rates fir the next week or so.

These are the FX Trading Ideas for today.