Saturday, February 23, 2008

Is a turn coming?

What I mean is a turn in attitude. A few postings ago I wrote about how the market was interputting all news as negative and this week it seemed that might have changed. Although there was numerous bad numbers out U.S. futures consistentey moved lower. Stocks held together and Emerging Markets continued to do well. I think this could be something interesting to keep an eye on.

Friday there was talk of a Ambiac bailout. Stocks took this news very well. Rallying from -100 to up 100 in less then an hour. EM was little changed. Brazil took a run lower but closed the day weaker against the dollar after triggering option stricks at 1.7000. Could it be time for the Sub Prime issue to take a back seat here in the States ? Well let's not get crazy. But I do think this could be signalling that overseas market's could be in for difficult times. Sure Stock's worldwide are down more then in the U.S. but I think rates and currencies could be next.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading


Sunday, February 17, 2008

Void of Idea's

I have not been updating lately due to my lack of credibly trading ideas. Sure I always have trades on but few, if any, with conviction enough to write about. I have been wrong about an ECB rate cut. Wrong about a "big" sell off in the Euro and Gbp and wrong about Latam markets eventually blowing up.

OK so I move on. Certainly of late, bad news has not been taken quite as bad as before. Is this a LULL BEFORE A STORM, or an actual change in direction. Judging from the traders in our weekly meeting this is a Lull in the Storm. EVERYONE is negative. I think this could be contributing to the wild swings we have been having. "Weak" longs getting into the market and when the position doesn't move as expected, quickly, they are squeezed out. That is why I am looking for anther (substantial) move lower in U.S. rates. Employment is slowing. Consumers are buying less and as a result I am seeing more and more empty storefronts on my way to work.

One thing I will be watching carefully is the term Deposit market. Currently there is little to no trading. This to me is the key to when the markets begin to turn. Banks start lending to each other and the economy begins to roll (or at least Grind) again.

Let me know any thoughts

Good Luck and Good Forex trading.


Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Wrong Score Correct Team.

What a game Sunday. As a Giant fan there is no better way to win then to drive down the field in the closing seconds and score the winning touchdown. Great Job.

Now as for the markets, they continue to look sicker and sicker with each passing day. Today stocks were down 3-5% depending on the country, and Asia is opening up lower as I type. I look for real carnage tonight. Dont get married to any positions and attack the markets from a position of slowing economies.

Good Luck and Good Forex trading.

Labels: ,

Sunday, February 03, 2008

Super Bowl.

The Super bowl is and this year includes the team that I support and that is the New York Giants. They come in big under dogs as they have for the last few weeks. This time around I hope they perform like they did in 1990 (win over Buffalo) rather then 2000 (blown out ag Baltimore). Time will tell. My prediction is for a 35-17 G-Man win. OK I am talking with my heart and not my head, but when you are a Fan it is hard to predict against them.

As for a recession, I see on TV this morning that scalping tickets in Arizona is legal. People were paying huge premiums to enter the event. Sure the vast majority of the people are corporates, who write off the expense, but it still amazes me where people get the money to spend on this type of stuff.

Good luck and Good Forex Trading.


Saturday, February 02, 2008

The Mets get Johan Santana........

The Met's yesterday signed Johan Santana, arguably the finest pitcher in baseball to a 6 year extention, onto his original contract. This comes after a long winter of waiting for the Met's to do something to improve their team. I for one am very glad that this has happened. The Met's need to win now. The team has been built to win NOW and they are ready. What they were missing was the number one Pitcher and now I think they are in a real position for Johan to lead us to a World Series like he did with Minnesota.

I think this relates a little to what is going on in the markets. Fan's feeling's for the Met's have brightened based on what they have done (signed Johan).Similarly, the markets may be (I repeat MAY BE) starting to believe that the Fed is on the correct path. Cutting rates aggressively (ready to do more) a stimulus package in the works and banks working on a program to keep Bond insurers solvent. Yesterday's employment number's were very poor. Even with revisions few could agrue that things are starting to look better. Trader's however, are quite often forward looking. If they percieve the things in the works will turn around (or at least stop the fall) the economy they will eliminate the bad and look for the good. Do I think we are totally there yet, No. But we should be getting closer.

The ECB did an interesting thing on Friday. They announced that they would not be participating in the auction in February to add liquidity to the markets. They feel that the liguidity situation is improved and that there is no need to do it this time around. I personally feel this is very short sighted. In late trading on Friday cash desks saw large European banks paying up for deposits.

I think this shows that the ECB are truly individual thinkers and that rate cuts are probably a while off. I think this could also cause liquidity problems to linger longer then necessary and a harder landing for their economy to come in the future.

I am currently....

Short Euro/Usd
Short Usd/Mxn
Short Usd/Krw
Long Usd/Twd
Short Usd/Ars

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.....