Sunday, February 17, 2008

Void of Idea's

I have not been updating lately due to my lack of credibly trading ideas. Sure I always have trades on but few, if any, with conviction enough to write about. I have been wrong about an ECB rate cut. Wrong about a "big" sell off in the Euro and Gbp and wrong about Latam markets eventually blowing up.

OK so I move on. Certainly of late, bad news has not been taken quite as bad as before. Is this a LULL BEFORE A STORM, or an actual change in direction. Judging from the traders in our weekly meeting this is a Lull in the Storm. EVERYONE is negative. I think this could be contributing to the wild swings we have been having. "Weak" longs getting into the market and when the position doesn't move as expected, quickly, they are squeezed out. That is why I am looking for anther (substantial) move lower in U.S. rates. Employment is slowing. Consumers are buying less and as a result I am seeing more and more empty storefronts on my way to work.

One thing I will be watching carefully is the term Deposit market. Currently there is little to no trading. This to me is the key to when the markets begin to turn. Banks start lending to each other and the economy begins to roll (or at least Grind) again.

Let me know any thoughts

Good Luck and Good Forex trading.



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