Saturday, April 12, 2008

Recession.....What Recession ???

I like most other people in the Financial community have come to the conclusion that we are at a Recession's door step (at least). Forget the technical term (two quarters of negative growth), but rather the realistic term for it. Employment contracting, Stores closing, basically less people working and less opportunities to other jobs. I know that talk in my industry is that bonus's will be bad. As one trader put it "Why would a bank pay when there is little opportunity to move to another institution". I think this is basically correct. Another friend of mine on the Brokerage side of things told me that he sees more traders moving to that side (as they lose their jobs from mergers, large losses, or closing of divisions), causing established brokers to look to "lock in". The feeling is that with less banks (no more Bear Stearns) and traders jumping to the brokerage side, find a seat (preferable with a 2-3 year contract) and reestablish yourself over the next year or two it takes to come through this. Makes sense to me all around.

Now on to my original question. Why if we are at Recession's door step am I having so much trouble getting workers at my home. Currently I am trying to fix a water problem in my basement. I think it all stems from drainage on the outside of my house. Of the 6 landscapers that I called only 3 showed up at my house. Only two came back with an estimate. My town required me to get a permit for some of the work, This Permit required me to get a "stamped" architectural drawing of my plans. I then called 4 archtect's. Not one called back ! Amazing. Couple this with the last few times that I stopped out for dinner and fornd the resturants/bars PACKED with people and I ask the question What Recession?

I am sure different parts of the country are effected quite differently, but it seems to me that as always the U.S. consumer is very reslient and I would not be surprised to see us pull out of this sooner rather then later.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading



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