Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Weaker Dollar on the horizen ?

Everything I have been reading today seems to be suggesting that a weaker dollar is iminent. This follows my broader view as I think the U.S. economy is set to slow into the 4th quarter and as such the Dollar should lag countries still in a rate rise environment. I believe the biggest benifactor of this should be the Euro. Europe is clearly not done raising rates. This should help to allow it to strengthen againt the U.S. dollar in the coming months. I have not bought any yet and may express this trade in a cross Eur/Jpy as I believe that although Japan has eliminated its zero interest rate policy, it's rate rises will be slower then the market anticipates.



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