Monday, May 01, 2006

A New Month

After a brief break I am back and have a few firm ideas on the market.

1. The dollar will weaken against the Euro(current level 1.2620). I know this has already occurred, but I believe we are just in the early stages. After Bernake came out with the P(ause) word, market perception that Europe will outpace the U.S. in interest rate rises seems clear.
2. Sell dollars against Latam currencies. I am currently short dollars against Chile and Argentina, and I will get short against Brazil on tomorrows opening. If U.S. rates stall I believe that "yield players" will reenter the market and place the dollar under pressure in that region. Usd/Brl has moved alot already this year (2.33 to 2.08) and I look for us below 2.00 by month end.
3. Stay out of Usd/Mxn with a small bias toward a weaker dollar. No real interest in playing this currency pair with any size as I have no conviction.
4.Usd/Asia should move lower. I will keep a small bias toward a lower dollar especially in Idr and Taiwan. Stay away from Usd/Sgd as the central bank has a strangle hold on that currency.

These are the FX Trading Ideas for Today.



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