Friday, May 05, 2006

Employment and the Markets

The U.S. Employment number came out this morning slightly weaker then expected. Before the number I felt that it would have to be a VERY VERY strong number to change the direction of the Dollar. This number I believe adds to my view that the dollar will continue under pressure and the U.S. rates might be heading to a top. Of course you will have to look at each number as it comes out but it would seem to me that unless numbers continue at a strong pace (possible) we are in for at least a temporary pause. I am currently short Dollars against Mexico,Brazil,Chile,Colombia (and hopefully Argentina on Monday). I think that with a topping of U.S. rates Emerging Market economies will benifit. Bigger picture is that the dollar has been under pressure since the begining of the year (longer against Brazil). I always like to trade with the trend (and positive carry when available), so until REALLY strong numbers shake me out I will stay this way.

These are the FX Trading Ideas for today.



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