Friday, September 05, 2008

HELP !


Ugh… Is there really anything else to say? The markets melted in a big way with the DOW down 3% (-344 pts). We in the States were not alone as stock markets around the globe were also in a similar situation. Talking Heads (Bill Gross, Jeff Macke) were on the airways suggesting that having cash is not such a bad thing (I wish they would have told me that last Oct !!).

Emerging Markets were under tremendous pressure throughout the session. Everyone is exiting carry trades and from what I can see just trying to get square.

Now for a few of the markets.

Korea. The Central Bank was in last night once again selling between 1-2 billion dollars. They were also rumored to be in during today’s session selling dollars.

Chile was the boring currency today. Traded between 514-518 all day with little to no real trading.

Brazil. UGH. Stocks off 4% and the currency a one way street with the dollar moving 5 big figures today. Rates also moved higher 12-17 bp out along the curve.

Colombia. OK,OK I am wrong ! Higher dollar once again with the spot closing at 2036, but all things being equal this currency pair should open higher as the overall market melted further after the official off.

"Where from here" has been the over riding question of the day. This says to me that all is not fine and that there is more pain to come. Remember we have the Employment number at 8.30 EST and I cannot see that being a good number (although I hope I am wrong).

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading

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2 Comments:

Blogger The Lonely Trader said...

just taking note of the anxiety in the US, i can only imagine what the average person in Argentina, Chile, Venezuela and Brazil is feeling...a friend of mine recently wrote to me about leaving Buenos Aires. what was the term he used?...oh yeah..."one way ticket."

i've since turned off the television and the radio. i only read news online now. the video and audio media are starting to use dark music, lighting and strange oblique angles to frame their coverage, lending a surreal, dystopian hue to everything. but even the print media is pretty bleak.

when you got guys like Bill Gross saying it's good to have cash, it's not that he is saying it. it's *how* he is saying it. i can only wonder what the guy with five bucks in his pocket on the corner of Fifth and Burnside is saying.

my guess is he's saying the same thing you are: ugh. and maybe rolling his eyes a little.

1:53 AM  
Blogger Banker said...

Very good observation LT. Yesterday as I was leaving the office the market was pulling back abit on news of a "bailout" of Freedie and Fannie. I do not think the Federal Government will let the go so I think it is a matter of how and when ....rather then if. Things are a mess and the rest of the world is now feeling our pain. The average "Joe" on the street as you say must be really feeling it. I caught 5 mins of H & C on Fox last night and I heard H. telling the audience about the GDP number (3.3%?) and how the media are looking at only the negative. Reb or Dem you have to admit the the Economy is in trouble and don't bring up a historic number (2nd Quarter) inflated by the tax rebate to prove that things are ok. UGH once again... I really dislike particine politics played from any angle.

8:52 AM  

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