Wednesday, August 27, 2008

It's a Marathon not a Sprint

Really not much to write about today. I think it is important not to force markets like this and remember to live to trade another day.

The dollars climbed against the Latam currencies and I took the opportunity enter a few positions.

I sold Usd/Brl at 1.6440 (BMF). This added to an already small position that I had.

I bought 6 mth Usd/Ars. This took me out of some, but not all, of my interest rate risk as well as added to an already long Dollar position. I also buy more dollars on Tomorrows fix.

I sold some forward Mexico today (looking for the interest rate differential to narrow against dollars). As I said yesterday I think that the Mexican central bank does not want to raise rates again. The curve is very flat and I think there is a very good possibility that we will go inverted.

Speaking with a friend at a large investment house, he is looking for an entry point to buy Usd/Jpy. He mentioned 102.00 but that was just off the top of his head before a big move higher. On a retracement I will buy a few as I do like the carry, possibly against another currency, but I will not wait to 102.00. More likely 105.50 I will start to buy and layer in down to 102.00 then hold my breath and hope for the best.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading.

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