Monday, August 04, 2008

Looking at the "Bad" side....

The Employment number was out on Friday and although at first it looked good I see that most economist are saying that it is not quite as good as first thought.

``Companies have already cut the fat and some muscle, and are now trimming hours,'' said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. The drop in hours ``is going to have a huge impact'' on growth.

I know that after the number was announced I began yelling out my usual positive U.S. comment's in my office....

"God Bless America"

"What Recession?"

"You can't slow this Economy Down!"

Now I am not a fool (well at least I hope not), I am well aware that we are in a recession (whether official or not it is a recession). Store Fronts in midtown Manhattan are more and more empty with each passing month. I do it as a way of deflecting the overly negative statements coming out of most members of the sales staff in my office. I think it is very unhealthy to always be looking for the bad in everything. It makes for very long days.

I, like Mr Greenspan, am very impressed by the resilience of the U.S. economy. I thought for sure we would be much further along to a "real recession" by now. And the Global picture just blows me away. For any regular readers of this blog you are aware I have been talking about a slowdown on the Global front which has never (really) occurred (at least to the degree I had been expecting).

Now the employment number Friday was a surprise in that it wasn't as negative as the market expected. This after the TERRIBLE claims number from the previous day. But as the economist have pointed out it is still another loss in jobs in the States and as such shows a declining employment situation. From my reading it seems that employment has been cut back so far that in the future, workweeks will be hit next. More part time employee's are being hired as such if a company doesn't need the help they can take a part time employee and give them 30 hours in a week instead of 40. No one losses a job but real wages are decreased and as such spending power. Now once again I have over simplified this, but the theory seems accurate (at least to me). Is this what is happening now?

Overall I think the U.S. still has a ways to go to pull itself out of this mess. It will happen, but it will take time. Until then I will continue to look for any positive news in the reported numbers and yell out "God Bless America". It makes me feel good and my co-workers chuckle.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading

The report on the dollar should be out by tonight.



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