Thursday, November 22, 2007

Is the Dollar nearing a bottom?

This was a topic of conversation in our weekly trader's meeting on Tuesday. The Technicians in the group clearly felt that was the case. We then began to ask the group what would be the catalyst to give the dollar it's much needed boost. We came up with a couple of possibilities.

1. Asian Credit Crisis.
This was an ARTICLE in today's Telegraph.UK.Com. It is a good read and shows (if you didn't already believe) that this Sub-Prime mess is not limited to the U.S.
2. Middle East Summit.
In early December the Middle East countries are set to meet to discuss their currencies and how they will manage them in the future. Most of the currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar. This has some problem's (Inflation is very high in the region now) and some benefits. Currently there is broad speculation that region might adopt a basket approach to managing it's currency (Kuwait recently went this way) or repeg at a lower level. As such this has put alot of pressure on the dollar. I for one think that the region will not move at all (politically the best move) and alot of Reval/basket trades will have to be unwound. Even if they do move could it be a case of, Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact ?

The Canadian dollar seems to have already put in a bottom and has been rebounding for a few weeks. The same is the case for Korea (I think this region has alot of potential for USD longs). All you need is a stimulus in this type of market to get a new direction going. I think that in the near future your will see a reversal of fortunes for the U.S. Dollar. Sit up in your chairs and be ready when it comes.

Happy Thanksgiving to All.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.



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