Wednesday, March 21, 2007

MPC Dovish....Trichet hints at rate hike

Trichet before the EU Parliament's committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs echoed comments that he made at the March Meeting. On Growth he remained cautiously optimistic and on Inflation he repeated his warning that HICP was likely to fall in the Spring and Summer, but repeated that it was important to look through short term volitility in inflation. These comments are quite similar to those made by Governing Council member Garganas when he indicated that upside wage pressures constitues an upside risk to inflation. I think this will at least leave the ECB leaning toward another rate Hike.

Minutes from the Bank of Englands March meeting showed a 8-1 vote to hold rates unchanged. With the one dissenter calling for a rate cut! This to me is quite dovish. The Short Sterling interest rate contracts have been rallying steadily since the surprise rate increase earlier this year. I look for the next move in rates to be down in the U.K.

For EM it looks like the day is starting out on a positive note. Usd/Mxn is below 11.10. Short dates are flush and the entire region is on an upbeat note. Stocks are all holding thier own. I hold my trades as is for now.

Good Luck and Good Forex Trading.




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