Friday, July 15, 2005

I am back !

The trend continues the dollar has been and should continue to be strong. Numbers today reflect a steadilty growing economy with few signs of inflation. Critics will say that the inflation numbers will pick up next month as Crude prices just recently crept higher. This may be true, but I see modest inflation (which is fine) and a continued growing (slowly) economy.

Trading ideas.

Short Usd/Mxn Spot and Forward.
Short GBP. There economy is turning over and with the terror attack the next move is toward a slower economy. Also S+B GBP Forward. The differential to dollars should narrow.
Short Usd/Brl. I am cautiously short this one as Political instability (Scandel) could cause the dollar to rise short term. But I am short the forwards as I really believe that rates will start coming off in the 4th quarter of this year. Inflation numbers for this week were once again lower.

Alot of speculation that next month China moves on thier currency. This could provide support for Asian currencies. I am currently square Asia until a clearer picture appears.

These are my FX Trading Ideas....

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