Saturday, October 18, 2008

Colin Powell....on Meet The Press

Colin Powell, former Secretary of State for George W Bush, and advisor to the last three Republican Presidents is scheduled to appear on Meet the Press tomorrow morning. He has been "courted" by both candidates for months, looking for an endorsement. Talk on the street is that he may come out in favour of Senator Obama tomorrow on the show.

“It’s going to make a lot of news, and certainly be personally embarrassing for McCain," a McCain official said. "It comes at a time when we need momentum, and it would create momentum against us.”

This would be a huge boost to the Obama (like he really needs it) as it could sway any voters unsure of his foreign policy and national security credentials.

If Mr Powell does come out in favour of Barack Obama, it would be yet another nail in McCain's coffin. The markets, which many are saying are suffering PARTLY because of the expected win by Obama (and a whole lot of other Democrats in the House and Senate) could do worse in the coming weeks.

Senator Obama's plans for the economy are seen by Wall Street as being anti business and as such could stale the economy even more and for a longer period of time.

I suspect that Colin Powell will not come out with an all out endorsement of Obama. Also I think that the markets will continue to suffer in anticipation of an Obama win, but will rebound once he is elected in a classic "sell the rumour, buy the fact" scenario.

Keep your positions small and your time frame short.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading.



OpenID thelonelytrader said...

I've followed Powell for quite a while...thanks for giving us the heads-up. I'll be sure to watch.

Just from what I know of Powell, he will certainly fall into the FP camp of Obama's crew. I haven't met the guy, but I know several people who have and two who knew him well earlier in his career. Like you, I do not expect him to outright endorse any candidate, in any race, now or in the future. I like that about him.

I really don't get why the market is bearish on Obama -- his fiscal and monetary positions are far more coherent and relevant than McCain's but nobody seems interested in reading them, only accepting what they are being told by talking heads...or maybe the markets would be bearish in either case? (I suspect this is true.)

Anyway, the market has had its fun in the sun and it is time to come inside for awhile -- maybe sit in the corner, facing the wall for a few hours. It has been a bad little boy.

The policy framework Obama's campaign is proposing would be beneficial to key sectors...we'll just have to see how it plays out. We have bigger problems right now than supporting the stock market with corporate welfare, methinks.

If the market does rally after the election, it will be short least for the short term. I agree with the view that we will see some basing for the next two years at least...with the odd spike high and spike low, and generally more volatility than in years past.

As I said last week, I'm still a buyer here -- but only in the snese that I'm dollar cost averaging in indexed accounts that are tax deferred, thus offsetting most or all of the losses in terms of what I'm putting in. When the market does start to move up again, I'll have a nice chunk of change already in.

When conditions improve, I will look at individual long term plays...but by then I hope to already be moving forward on my FX and futures trading. And then it won't really matter who is president or how the stock market is doing -- beyond my moral/intellectual leanings and interests.

11:14 PM  
OpenID thelonelytrader said...

Just saw the interview...all I can say is WOW. Very positive.

12:28 PM  
Blogger Banker said...

Absolutely, The final nail has been put in McCains coffin. This race is done. Colin Powell (to mme) is a very credible guy. I think alot of Americans on the fence concerning this election have been convinced.

6:33 PM  
Anonymous Free Music said...

Thanks for the heads up.

6:06 AM  

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