Friday, July 18, 2008

Good Economic numbers…well at least better….

As I wrote yesterday I expected Usd/Brl to open lower. It did and traded lower during the New York morning, more on the back of catch up then anything else. I cut my entire short as the Bovespa has struggled even as U.S. stocks have moved steadily higher. Again I do not want to be long Usd/Brl (I have already made that mistake in Argentina).

The Euro has also traded heavy all session. A lot of factors here:

1. Crude off again today. Trading at 130.40 currently down over 4 dollars.
2. Decent U.S. numbers. Here I think we may be getting ahead of ourselves as I need to see more before I get on that bandwagon, but the truth is we have been so negative for so long that it makes sense to have at least a “Relief Rally”.
3. Stocks. Up Up and away. Financials leading the way again. I again think this makes sense. Remember everything runs in cycles and these Banks have been writing down their mortgage portfolios. Pretty soon (if not already) they will be at “the bottom” and when things stabilize will start producing once again. Long(er) term these will be a great buy. It is just a case of how long you have to wait.

I continue to try to stay out of the Euro market as I have no luck at all.

JPMorgan also beat analyst estimates today. This coupled with yesterday’s profits from WAMU, is being seen as very positive for the markets. Jamie Dimon did caution the markets that

That while a weakening economy means financial markets will remain ``under stress,'' the New York-based company's capital position is strong. JPMorgan has posted more than $12 billion of write downs, losses and credit provisions on mortgage-tainted assets through the second quarter, a fraction of the $43 billion at Citigroup Inc., which reports earnings tomorrow.


Good Luck and Good Currency Trading.

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3:06 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great call on BRL. I was wondering what your definition of short term is. Seems lately it's been about a day or two?

4:20 AM  
Blogger Banker said...


My Definition of short term 1-3 days. Medium term 1-2 weeks and long(er)term 1-3mths. For the Brazil I was just looking for a "quick" move so that position was going to be on for no more then a few hours. These markets are changing very quickly, I am running positions a lot shorter then usual. Yesterday I was paid in usd/Cop and never had a chance to cover. I took a loss on the position as there was no way I wanted to run it (position to big and the wrong way for these markets). I will be doing a post on the EM close sometime over the weekend as some news in a few countries, for now I am going off to do some home chores.

7:51 AM  
Blogger Banker said...


send me an e-mail at to discuss

2:20 PM  

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