Sunday, June 08, 2008

The Belmont Stakes, Big Brown and a sure thing

All week at work I have been hearing from the other traders how Big Brown was a sure thing to win the Belmont Stakes and as such the Triple Crown. Of course as we all know now it didn't happen. Not only that but it didn't happen in amazing fashion with Big Brown having to pull up and trot easily across the finish line in last place.
This to me is very similar to trading from time to time. You put all the work into your trading plan, come up with scenarios and then something happens that you are just not able to explain. At times like this you can decide to "ride out the position" to the end or cut your loses (pull up like Kent Desormeaux did with Big Brown).
I think the most important thing to remember is to "Stay in the game". By cutting your loses during times of confusion you preserve your capital and allow yourself another chance to succeed. In the case of Big Brown, maybe something is wrong with him and by pushing him harder the horse would have broken down and had to be "put down". By playing it a bit cautious the owners still have an asset (a very valuable asset) that will now, probably, be put out to stud.

In both senerios by knowing your circumstances it allows you the ability to fight another day.

Oh and remember in Trading , as in life, there is never a sure thing.

Good Luck and Good Currency Trading

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