Tuesday, April 12, 2005

Fed Minutes today

The FOMC minutes came out today and although I felt the minutes were quite bearish the market rallied in the face of it. I think it has more to do with "everyone" being short Eurodollar futures (and long dollars) rather then a change in direction. I continue to feel that the U.S. will outpace Europe and the U.K. with interest rate rises. I am currently positioned that way (through futures) and will stay that way. Yield also seems to be making a comeback. Higher yielders, led by Brazil,Mexico,Australia and the British pound are clearly leading the way. If you do go short dollars pick a higher yielding currency to get more bang for your buck. I have been running a dollar neutral portfolio (long Aud,Nzd and Gbp....Short Euro,Chf and Cad) since March 7 and it is finally up money (after being down 10percent). My point being Yield is back in play. Good Luck to all and any questions please let me know.

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